On Thursday, the World Gold Council (WGC) published data on changes in gold ETFs in November. For the first time since April, there were net outflows again, amounting to 28.6 tons. The vast majority, namely 26 tons, occurred in ETFs listed in Europe, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

ETF changes in November correspond with the price trend

“The strongest outflows were registered in Germany and the United Kingdom. The WGC attributes this to weaker economic data, concerns about trade tariffs imposed by the future Trump administration, uncertainty about the path of central banks, a greater risk appetite on the financial markets and the weakness of the euro and pound against the US Dollar (USD).”

“However, in our opinion, the first three factors mentioned above could just as easily have been in favour of ETF inflows. In the US, there were outflows in the first half of November, followed by inflows in the second half of the month, so that the monthly change was negligible. It is notable that the world's largest gold ETF recorded outflows. This was offset by almost identical inflows into another ETF.”

“The election victory of Donald Trump therefore had no serious negative impact on ETF demand in the US. There were smaller outflows in Asia, bringing a series of 20 months of net inflows to an end. The ETF changes in November corresponded with the price trend. Last month, the gold price recorded its sharpest monthly decline in more than a year, with the price weakness occurring mainly in the first half of the month.”