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Gold price retreats from record highs after mixed US data

  • Gold dips from all-time high amid strong US jobs data and steady core inflation.
  • Investors remain risk-averse ahead of November 5 US election, polls show a narrow race between Trump and Harris.
  • Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed’s upcoming rate decision keep traders cautious.

Gold price retreated from all-time high on Thursday as traders failed to capitalize on falling US Treasury bond yields. Nevertheless, the precious metal is set to end the month with gains of over 4% and to remain above the $2,700 threshold.

The XAU/USD trades at $2745, down 1.49%. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped almost two basis points to 4.284%.

Risk aversion is the name of the game ahead of the US Presidential Election on November 5. Meanwhile, the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, alongside a strong jobs report, weighed on the precious metal price.

In the meantime, the latest opinion polls show that the race for the White House is narrowing between the Republican candidate, former US President Donald Trump, and the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.

US data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that headline inflation dipped. However, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remained unchanged in October compared to September's level.

The US Department of Labor revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits in the week ending October 26 dipped to its lowest level in five months.

Geopolitical tensions remain high in the Middle East, even though US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated “good progress” towards a ceasefire in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Israeli military revealed the movement of ballistic missiles in Iran, hinting that a truce is far from being reached.

Bullion traders await the Nonfarm Payrolls report and have priced in a 95% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price retreats amid goodish US data

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Dollar's value against a basket of six currencies, dropped 0.18% at 104.08.
  • The US headline PCE decreased from 2.3% to 2.1% year-over-year (YoY), moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target. However, the Core PCE, which excludes volatile items, remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY, slightly above forecasts of 2.6%.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 26 fell from 228K to 216K, coming in below the forecast of 230K.
  • Data from the Chicago Board of Trade, based on the December fed funds rate futures contract, indicates that investors estimate 49 basis points (bps) of Fed easing by the end of the year.
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