Gold prices are under pressure, but decisively sticking to the range set near all-time highs. However, for the first time in months, price action could now unlock CTA selling activity over the coming week, TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Gold rangebound near all-time highs

“This set-up has formed just in time for the NFP data release, which risks injecting volatility into markets amid TD Securities' expectations for a 205k beat in jobs.”

“While we would only expect CTAs to sell 10% of their max size in a scenario in which prices break $2450/oz over the coming sessions, this could be the first cohort to blink in a context where positioning cues are flashing red on several fronts.”

“Macro fund positioning is particularly extreme, with our gauge now nearing its highest levels on record. While this consensus outlook can be challenged, a context where rate cuts engineer a soft-landing is still not necessarily a positive environment for Gold, as capital could plausibly flow out of the yellow metal towards more productive uses.”